Timelines Matter.

A closer look at those final minutes before John O'Keefe's iPhone stops registering his steps.

Jun 04, 2024

Here’s the deal guys.

We can talk about random butt dials between drunk friends and red solo cups until we’re blue in the face (and, rest assured, we will discuss those at some point),

BUT —

None of that means anything without understanding and analyzing the basic timeline leading up to John’s last known movements.

Timelines MATTER.

They are the framework to a storyline.

They bring context to certain questions, as well as clear anchor points that can help us analyze what is and isn’t possible.

Without focusing on a timeline, it’s easy to go down random rabbit holes that lead us nowhere but to our own imagination land. We can obsess over butt dials, and typos in a police report, BUT without context, we just swirl around aimlessly.

And recklessly.

SO…

Let’s turn all the side noise down for now, and focus on the basic order of when Karen’s SUV arrived and left Fairview property.

(Please note: As I write this, we have yet to hear the angry voicemail message(s) that prosecution states were left by the defendant on the victim’s phone, so those are not added into this timeline.)

In this article we’re going to focus on the short timeframe from when John’s phone first pings near the Fairview property to when his Apple Health Data on his iPhone 12 last documents “steps”.

(Note: Once John is located around 6am, his phone is retrieved by Kerry Roberts, and eventually handed over to an EMT. Steps begin registering again at this point, so when referencing “last steps”, it’s the time prior to him being found.)

Let’s look at what we KNOW for sure:

John O’Keefe’s location shows him arriving on Fairview Road at about 12:24 am.
Ryan Nagel (and his 2 friends) turn onto Fairview Road directly after Karen’s SUV turned onto the same road. Both vehicles pull up to the property. Ryan testifies that SUV was parked in front of them.
Ryan’s sister, Julie, walks out to chat with her brother (and his friends), invites them in, but they decline. The entire interaction is noted as under a minute.
Ryan Nagel said they were only there for minutes from first pulling up to leaving.
Ryan testifies that the SUV pulled forward, and then pulled forward again moments later. He said the brake lights were on, and the SUV did not appear to be in park.
Ryan (and friends) pull away and drive past the SUV. He testifies to seeing a woman sitting forward, hands on the wheel in 10 & 2 position. The center interior light was on, and he didn’t notice another passenger in those quick seconds he passed by.
Karen’s SUV is last seen pulled up between the Albert property and their neighbors. John’s body is found hours later right near this exact location.
No one sees John exit the SUV.
John’s phone stops moving at 12:32. It remains unmoved until his body is found hours later.

Now that we have those anchor points, let’s explore the probability of Karen being responsible for backing into John:

When Ryan Nagel passed by the SUV, is it possible/probable that John was simultaneously exiting the vehicle on the other side? The center interior light was seen on in those seconds that Ryan looked over, which lends to the idea that a door was, in fact, ajar. ✔️
Consistent with this same scenario is that Karen’s hands were seen on the wheel at the 10 and 2 location. Her hands were in a driving position, so is it possible/probable that she was getting ready to drive away because John was exiting the vehicle? Yes. ✔️
Also, consistent with this is that Ryan Nagel’s girlfriend says she saw a man and a woman in the vehicle when they first turned onto Fairview, however she (and the other 2 witnesses in the vehicle) never saw John exit the car or walk towards the home. No one in the house testifies that John was in the home. ✔️
Ryan Nagel (and friends) drive away when Karen’s SUV is still there, however in a short window of unspecific time (could be about 1 minute to several minutes since Ryan Nagel’s exact time of exit is not analyzed with phone records) John’s phone stops registering steps.
Hours later, John is found laying on top of his phone (on the lawn) about 10-12 feet from the asphalt street.

This means that John’s phone HAD to of been on the lawn at 12:32.

Now if we consider the conspiracy theory…

There’s about a 9 minute window of time for many things that need to happen.

Is it possible/probable that John entered the house, got beat up in a basement, attacked by a dog, and then dragged out to the front of the lawn in order to frame Karen in 9 minutes? 😬

Occam’s Razor would suggest that John exited the vehicle when Ryan Nagel was driving away, thus leaving him and Karen as the only two people out front of that property before his phone completely stops moving.

With that information added to the totality of many other details of the case, the storyline really seems to take the shape of a vehicular-pedestrian accident.

Things like —

Karen tells emergency personnel that she was fighting with John the last time she saw him.
Karen’s BAC level around midnight was considered by the medical professional to be up to 3 times the legal limit.
SUV taillight pieces were found later that same day by the SERT team under a snowbank in a blizzard.
Microscopic pieces of the taillight are found embedded on John’s clothing.
A hair belonging to the victim is found on the side panel - bumper of her car.
The cocktail glass John was last seen holding on surveillance camera is found in shards next to his body.
Karen told Kerry Roberts at 5am that morning that John was dead, and that he was possibly hit by a snow plow. This statement happening an hour before anyone found him severally injured near the road.
Several EMT-Firefighters recalling her say she “hit him”.
Karen’s niece testifying that Karen said she may have done something bad that morning.

This case (at this point in the trial) truly appears to be an accountability issue of the defendant, not a mastermind corruption plot that almost exceeds the number of people involved in the Watergate scandal.

Sources:

Affidavit of Defense’s Expert, Richard Green:
Jen’s phone location shows arrival at 12:18.
Jen’s texts to John.
John and Karen’s arrival in Fairview at 12:24.